Indian stock markets are entering a crucial week from 17 November to 21 November, backed by global cues, domestic economic signals, FOMC minutes, and sector rotation patterns visible in the previous sessions. The broader sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, but mixed indicators suggest that volatility can remain elevated throughout the week. This forecast provides a clear, structured outlook covering technical levels, sentiment, macro triggers, and sector-wise expectations, helping traders prepare better for the week ahead.
1. Market Sentiment Overview
The previous week closed with the Nifty and Bank Nifty both showing signs of strength after holding above their respective key support zones. The formation of bullish candles on the weekly charts indicates that buyers still dominate the broader trend. However, this positivity is accompanied by caution due to global uncertainties and event-driven risks.
Overall sentiment for this week is positive to moderately bullish, as long as Nifty holds above the lower support bands. Market participants are now closely watching the 26,000 level for Nifty, which acts as a psychological barrier. If this is decisively crossed, markets could see a short-term acceleration toward higher resistance zones.
Global factors — especially US Federal Reserve commentary and US job data — are likely to influence risk appetite. Domestic factors such as inflation outlook, FII flows, sector rotation, and political developments also contribute to the overall tone.
2. Key Index Levels
Nifty 50
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Primary Support: 25,700 – 25,750
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Secondary Support: 25,500
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Immediate Resistance: 26,000
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Major Resistance: 26,150 – 26,220
If Nifty sustains above 26,000 for two consecutive sessions, a possible rally toward 26,200 may unfold. Conversely, if Nifty slips below 25,700, the short-term bullish structure weakens, and a retest of 25,500 becomes likely.
Bank Nifty
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Immediate Support: 57,300 – 57,500
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Major Support: 56,900
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Resistance Zone: 58,500 – 59,000
Bank Nifty has shown resilience and continues to perform slightly stronger than Nifty. Banks may remain in focus due to improving credit growth, declining NPAs, and strong Q2 earnings.
3. Global Market Influence
The world markets continue to keep a close eye on:
a) FOMC Minutes
The Federal Reserve’s minutes will be the most crucial global event this week. If the tone remains dovish or neutral, emerging markets like India may benefit. Any hawkish tone, however, could lead to correction pressure.
b) US Employment Data
Stronger job numbers may push US yields higher temporarily, which could cause FIIs to book profits in Indian markets. Weak job data could boost global liquidity expectations.
c) Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil remains volatile. A rise above $85 may hurt Indian markets due to inflationary concerns, while cooling oil prices will support both rupee and equity markets.
4. Domestic Market Drivers
a) Political Stability & Domestic News
Political developments including state-level announcements and government investment plans can impact sentiment. Recently announced infrastructure projects and PLI scheme progress may benefit select sectors like infra, capital goods, and manufacturing.
b) Corporate Earnings Residual Effect
Some mid-cap and small-cap companies still announce results this week. Strong earnings from these segments can fuel the ongoing momentum.
c) FII & DII Flow Trends
FIIs have shown a mixed pattern recently. Their stance this week will be crucial. DIIs continue to support the markets on every dip, providing strong underlying resilience.
5. Sector-Wise Weekly Outlook
1. Banking & Financials
Banks and NBFCs remain the strongest sectors. Improved balance sheet strength, credit growth, and optimism from global flows support the sector. PSU banks continue outperforming and may extend their momentum.
Bias: Bullish
Stocks to Monitor: SBI, Bank of Baroda, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, PNB
2. IT Sector
Weak global cues and rising US bond yields may create volatility in IT stocks. However, large-cap IT stocks remain fundamentally strong.
Bias: Neutral to Positive
Stocks to Watch: TCS, Infosys, LTIM
3. Auto Sector
Auto stocks remain in a strong trend due to festive demand, better volume numbers, and positive monthly sales. EV-related news flow continues to support the segment.
Bias: Bullish
Stocks to Monitor: Maruti, Tata Motors, M&M, Bajaj Auto
4. Metals & Mining
Metal stocks are driven by commodity prices and Chinese demand cues. If global growth picks up, metals may remain positive.
Bias: Slightly Bullish
Stocks to Track: JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Hindalco
5. Energy & OMCs
Crude price fluctuations will determine the movement. Lower crude prices will support OMCs and aviation sectors.
Bias: Neutral
Stocks: IOC, BPCL, ONGC
6. Midcaps & Smallcaps
These segments may continue to show outperformance but carry higher risk. Traders must maintain strict stop-loss levels to avoid sharp corrections.
Bias: High-volatility Positive
6. Option Chain & Derivative View
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Strong call writing visible around 26,000 – 26,200 zones for Nifty.
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Put writers active at 25,700 indicating strong support.
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Bank Nifty OI suggests resistance at 58,500 and support at 57,300.
A breakout or breakdown on option-chain levels could determine intraday momentum across the week.
7. Trading Strategy for the Week
a) For Short-Term Traders
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Buy Nifty on dips near 25,750 with SL 25,600 and target 26,150+.
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Bank Nifty buy zone is 57,400 with SL 57,000 and target 58,800.
b) Breakout Traders
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Nifty above 26,000 = Quick long trades target 26,180–26,220.
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Bank Nifty above 58,500 = Target 58,900–59,200.
c) Swing Traders
Focus on strong sectors like banking, auto, and metals.
Use trailing stop-loss to manage volatility.
8. Risk Factors for the Week
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Hawkish FOMC minutes
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Sudden crude oil spike
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Unfavorable global cues
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Heavy profit booking near all-time highs
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Currency volatility (if USDINR crosses key levels)
Traders must keep stop-loss strict, and avoid over-leveraging.
9. Final Summary
The week of 17–21 November is likely to be bullish to moderately positive for Indian markets, with key support zones defending well. Nifty needs to cross 26,000 decisively for a strong upward rally, while support around 25,700 will be crucial for the bulls. Sectors like banking, auto, and metals show the most strength. Global triggers remain the biggest risk and opportunity drivers.
About Money99
Parag Patil is a technical analyst and trading system designer with stock excel programmer. I hope the articles and live chart of nse future and mcx on this Website will be as helpful and profitable to you . I try to update and post new articles tips everyday. My motto is to encourage the traders, so that they should able to understand the technique views behind the moment of stocks. I have deeply analyzed with many technical indicator with parameter and added to my amibroker afl. And even taken backtest report which is never being implemented. Any of the analyst expect me. Seeing all this you may understand that my views is more technical than commercial. If you are profited by my views I fill happy.
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