Weekly Market Forecast (29 Sept – 3 Oct 2025): News, Sectors & Trading Strategies

 

As September winds down and October begins, the financial markets look set for another week of uncertainty. Investors are balancing global trade tensions, domestic monetary policy, and sector-specific shocks. Last week’s heavy sell-off, particularly in IT and pharma, showed how fragile sentiment can be. This week, all eyes will turn to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy outcome, global macro data, and festive season demand signals.

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Macro Backdrop: What’s Moving the Market?

1. RBI Policy on 1 October

   • The biggest event of the week is the RBI’s monetary policy meeting. While most expect the central bank to maintain a pause, the tone of the governor’s commentary will decide whether markets find relief or extend their decline.

2. Global Drivers

   • U.S. jobs data, PMI readings, and Federal Reserve speeches could add fresh volatility. A dovish tilt may offer respite to emerging markets, while hawkish hints can weigh on flows.

3. Trade Policy Overhang

   • The U.S. move to impose 100% tariffs on branded pharma imports rattled Indian pharmaceutical stocks. Any fresh clarity from policymakers could swing the sector sharply in either direction.

4. Festive Demand

   • With the festive season kicking in, early trends in consumer spending will be crucial for FMCG, retail, and auto sectors. A positive read-through could bring buyers back into consumption stocks.

5. Crude Oil & Rupee Watch

   • Rising crude prices and a weakening rupee remain risks for inflation and margins. Traders should be alert to sudden moves here.

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Sectoral Pulse: Who’s in Focus?

• Pharma & Healthcare:
  Under stress due to U.S. tariffs, but select generic-focused companies could remain resilient. Risky in the short term, but oversold stocks may offer tactical opportunities.

• IT & Technology:
  Facing dual pressure from higher visa fees and weaker client spending abroad. Best to stay selective—companies with diversified geographies are better placed.

• Metals & Capital Goods:
  Supported by strong order books and government-led infrastructure push. Likely to outperform if markets stabilize.

• Banking & Financials:
  Credit growth continues, but asset quality and margin pressures need monitoring. Large, diversified banks may weather volatility better than mid-sized players.

• Consumer & FMCG:
  The festive season could bring a short-term tailwind. Branded consumer names with strong rural penetration may surprise positively.

• Gold & Commodities:
  Gold remains an attractive hedge amid uncertainty. Analysts expect the uptrend to continue, though bouts of profit-taking may occur.

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Trading & Investment Strategies

1. Stay Defensive, Trade Tactical

   • With policy uncertainty, avoid over-committing capital. Accumulate quality names on dips rather than chasing rallies.

2. Hedge the Portfolio

   • Use index puts or sector-specific hedges to protect against downside risk, especially in vulnerable sectors like IT and pharma.

3. Phased Allocation

   • Instead of lump-sum entries, build positions gradually across the week. Keep cash ready for sharp corrections.

4. Focus on Relative Strength

   • Consider pair trades: long on strong sectors (capital goods, metals) while shorting weaker pockets (export-heavy IT).

5. Gold as Insurance

   • A 5–10% allocation to gold ETFs or bullion can balance risk from equities.

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Risks to Watch

• Unforeseen policy changes (tariffs, regulatory actions)

• A spike in crude oil or sharp rupee depreciation

• Disappointment in festive demand trends

• FII outflows picking up pace

Weekly Roadmap

Date	Key Trigger	Market Implication
29–30 Sept	Early U.S. macro releases, crude price trend	Likely to drive opening sentiment
1 Oct (Wed)	RBI policy meeting	Dovish tone = relief rally; hawkish stance = more pressure
2–3 Oct	U.S. jobs report & Fed remarks	Final directional cue for the week

Bottom Line

The week of 29 Sept – 3 Oct 2025 is unlikely to offer a smooth ride. With central bank policy, trade frictions, and global macro data colliding, volatility will remain high. The smart approach is to stay flexible, hedge risk, and focus only on sectors and companies with proven resilience.

In short: defense first, selectivity always, and cash ready for opportunities.

About Money99

Parag Patil is a technical analyst and trading system designer with stock excel programmer. I hope the articles and live chart of nse future and mcx on this Website will be as helpful and profitable to you . I try to update and post new articles tips everyday. My motto is to encourage the traders, so that they should able to understand the technique views behind the moment of stocks. I have deeply analyzed with many technical indicator with parameter and added to my amibroker afl. And even taken backtest report which is never being implemented. Any of the analyst expect me. Seeing all this you may understand that my views is more technical than commercial. If you are profited by my views I fill happy.