When a stock, market, commodity or currency continues to hit lower lows and lower highs, what do you call it? A bear market. When that happens year after year, for four years, what do you call that? A secular, or long-term, bear market. A secular bear is what gold is now. No need to be surprised the last secular bear market for gold lasted 20 years. In 1980, Gold touched $850 an ounce but it took a quarter of century to reach once again to that level. In 2001,Gold was trading above $250 an ounce, the yellow metal rallied more than 500% to its 2011 all-time price high which is $1900.But it was able to breaks its previous high $850 level in 2007 . From 2007 to 2011 gold was in bull phase but bottomed out in 2001. Now Gold is trading at $1100 level. Many believe it's going to be end of bear market or some says it's heading towards final low. There is a huge difference between the end of a bear market and a bottom. It could take many months or even years for the precious metals to form a bottom. Even if the precious metals find a final low, you could grow old and die before the next bull trend. Gold will not glitter like earlier in near term. Back to home, now gold is trading at Rs 24,752 per 10 grams but we have same question when it was trading at 32,000 level. Is it the right time to buy? It's time to surrender and let help the yellow metal fall to its bear market low. Gold has a peculiar relation to the Indian household. While world looks at it is protection against hyperinflation, Indians have made it a must-own commodity that serves a family in times of distress. Devotees make it an offering to gods, which has led to thousands of tones of the metal getting stocked up in the vaults of temples. For a country of over a billion where more than half didn't even have bank accounts but somehow or other we hold gold. World council estimates privately held gold to be anywhere between 18,000-20,000 tonnes in India. Last week, China announced it has around 1600 tonnes of gold reserve and we all know a half-truth is a whole lie which added fuel to falling gold price. In international markets the price may crack $1000 level but price of gold in India depends on rupee against dollar. The long-awaited shift of household savings from physical to financial assets is finally happening in India.
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Parag Patil is a technical analyst and trading system designer with stock excel programmer. I hope the articles and live chart of nse future and mcx on this Website will be as helpful and profitable to you . I try to update and post new articles tips everyday. My motto is to encourage the traders, so that they should able to understand the technique views behind the moment of stocks. I have deeply analyzed with many technical indicator with parameter and added to my amibroker afl. And even taken backtest report which is never being implemented. Any of the analyst expect me. Seeing all this you may understand that my views is more technical than commercial. If you are profited by my views I fill happy.
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