Monday, 16 February 2015

Jeera Prices To Follow Side Ways Trend for 16 February 2015

Jeera March contract is likely to trade side ways for both short term and intra day.Short term support seen at 13800 and resistance at 15100. Intra day support is seen at 14350 and resistance at 14580. MUMBAI(Commodity Online): Jeera prices were trading up on Monday(11.30 am) at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX). Jeera March contract rose by 2.28 per cent to 14555 at NCDEX. 
With exports rising and arrivals of the new crop slowing down, overall trend is expected to remain firm for the commodity. Arrivals of new crop however is preventing strong 1-sided upside movement for the commodity rates. Lower sowing area and good export demand are however likely to keep long term sentiments Bullish. Rains in growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan would be beneficial for the standing crop productivity-and that is preventing any strong recovery in prices. Lower sowing area and expected fall in production would however keep long term Bullish sentiments intact.
 Exports too have risen in the mandis. As per latest Govt reports, in Gujarat, normal area is approximately 388,000 ha. Till 5.1.2015, only 2.64 lakh ha have sown as compared to 4.54 lakh ha last year. Sowing area during current year likely to go down in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to lower price as compared to Coriander. Area may shift to Corian-der and Fenugreek seed. Cumin output is expected to fall steeply in Gujarat this year. Output was 3.46 lakh tons in the state last year but may fall this year as acreage is slashed by 42%. However, yield is expected to improve after the rainfall that the state received recently. Still, there is less probabil-ity of the output to cross 2 lakh tons. Latest report from Spice Board of India indicates pickup in exports during April-Sept 2014 period at 87500 tonnes (up from 70243 in April-Sept 2013) - a rise of 25% in Quantity and 2% in value. Targeted Export for 2014-15 period is 1,00,000 tonnes. With Indian produce being of superior quality, they fetch a premi-um w.r.t. International market. Ad-verse reports from International producers would be beneficial for the Indian markets in the long term. The exports have already shot up 40% during the 1st half of the quarter. It is expected to remain high in coming months too - which could create a Bullish sentiment in the long term for the commodity. Finally a fall in area as reported amidst adverse weather conditions in growing areas could help keep market sentiments firm in the medium term.

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