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Saturday 14 February 2015

Indian Inflation to average at 5.8% in 2015-16 supported by lower oil prices, normal monsoons, better monetary and fiscal coordination.

Indian Inflation
CRISIL on Friday said India's inflation is likely to average at 5.8% in 2015-16 as compared to an estimated 6.5% for 2014-15. CRISIL expects RBI to deliver rate cuts in the range of 50-75 bps in the next fiscal.

In January CPI inflation rose to 5.11% from 4.28% in December as per the new CPI series. The December figure according to the old series was at 5%. Despite the rise in inflation in January, inflation remains in the comfortable zone, according to CRISIL.

“We expect inflation to average at 6.5% for this fiscal. For 2015-16, we expect inflation to average at 5.8% supported by lower oil prices, normal monsoons, pro-active steps by the government and better monetary and fiscal coordination.”
The one of dampeners to inflation next fiscal will be:1) lower crude oil prices - we expect crude oil prices to decline to $60-65/barrel (Brent) in FY16 from $85-90/barrel in FY15. This is the first round effect. Additionally, second round effects through lower production and transportations costs will also play out.2) Normal monsoons in 2015-16. Factors that will keep inflation low in 2015-16 and beyond include 1) proactive steps by the government such as lower MSP increases and better utilization of food grain stocks 2) improved monetary and fiscal coordination.Trajectory of inflation beyond 2015-16, will strengthen further once the government adopts an inflation target as recommended by the Urjit Patel Committee report, CRISIL said.


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