A Week of Caution Amid Earnings and Global Jitters
The Indian markets ended last week on a cautious note. The Nifty and Bank Nifty indices witnessed mild selling pressure as global uncertainty, weak IT earnings, and regulatory developments weighed on investor sentiment. With a packed calendar ahead, the coming week is expected to remain volatile.
📉 What Happened Last Week
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Nifty 50 closed lower by over 1%, slipping below its 20-day moving average—an early sign of short-term weakness.
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Bank Nifty also showed signs of fatigue, ending the week around the 56,750 mark, failing to sustain momentum above key resistance zones.
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Sectors like FMCG outperformed, while IT stocks declined sharply due to weak earnings reports, especially from TCS.
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Globally, rising tariff concerns and mixed signals from U.S. trade policies kept foreign investors on the edge.
🔍 What to Expect This Week
🔹 Nifty Outlook
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Support levels: 25,000–25,150. If the index breaks below this zone, we may see a deeper correction towards 24,700.
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Resistance levels: 25,400–25,600. A move above this could reignite the uptrend.
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Strategy: Traders should remain cautious unless Nifty closes above 25,600 with strong volume.
🔹 Bank Nifty Outlook
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Support zone: 56,500–56,700.
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Resistance zone: 57,400–57,500. A breakout could push it towards 58,000+.
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View: The index is in a consolidation phase. A strong close above 57,500 is necessary for any sustainable rally.
🗝️ Key Triggers to Watch
1. Earnings Season in Full Swing
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The upcoming week will see major results from Infosys, Wipro, HCL, and other blue-chip names.
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Any improvement in IT earnings can ease pressure on the broader markets, while further disappointments may worsen the selling trend.
2. SEBI Action & Derivatives Volume
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The SEBI ban on Jane Street, a major FII, has led to a sharp drop in options trading volume, particularly in Bank Nifty.
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Liquidity is expected to recover in the coming weeks, but short-term traders must adapt to reduced volatility and wider bid-ask spreads.
3. Global Risk Sentiment
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Tariff fears and uncertainty in U.S.–India trade relations are hurting investor appetite.
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Investors should track cues from U.S. inflation data, Fed comments, and geopolitical headlines for risk-off or risk-on signals.
4. Sector Rotation
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With IT and FMCG seeing opposite trends, investors may rotate capital toward banking, auto, and real estate if macro cues improve.
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Defensive sectors like Pharma may continue to see interest amid uncertain global developments.
5. FII/DII Activity
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FIIs have been net sellers in recent sessions, cautious due to global risk and policy noise.
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On the other hand, DIIs are providing consistent support, helping markets avoid deeper falls. Watch this tug-of-war closely.
📌 Technical Summary
| Index | Support Zone | Resistance Zone | Market Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty | 25,000–25,150 | 25,400–25,600 | Cautious / Range-bound |
| Bank Nifty | 56,500–56,700 | 57,400–57,500 | Neutral / Awaiting Breakout |
📝 Conclusion: Navigate With Caution
The Indian stock market is entering a decisive phase. Technical indicators are flashing short-term caution, while earnings and global headlines are driving sentiment. With Nifty and Bank Nifty stuck below key resistance zones, a breakout or breakdown could set the tone for the next leg of the trend.
Stay focused on:
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Key levels on charts.
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Earnings announcements.
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Institutional flow (FII vs DII).
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Options data and liquidity changes post-SEBI action.
Until then, traders are advised to stay light, avoid aggressive positions, and stick to high-conviction ideas in quality sectors.
About Money99
Parag Patil is a technical analyst and trading system designer with stock excel programmer. I hope the articles and live chart of nse future and mcx on this Website will be as helpful and profitable to you . I try to update and post new articles tips everyday. My motto is to encourage the traders, so that they should able to understand the technique views behind the moment of stocks. I have deeply analyzed with many technical indicator with parameter and added to my amibroker afl. And even taken backtest report which is never being implemented. Any of the analyst expect me. Seeing all this you may understand that my views is more technical than commercial. If you are profited by my views I fill happy.
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