The Reserve Bank is expected to keep key rates unchanged in the next policy meeting on June 7, but might lower rates by another 50 bps during the current financial year, says a report by Morgan Stanley . According to the report, retail inflation is likely to moderate going forward and is expected to decelerate to 4.5 % by March 2017. 'Based on our CPI forecast and RBI's stated real rate target of 1.5-2 per cent, we expect RBI to lower rates by another 50 bps in FY2017. Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Retail inflation soared to 5.39 % in April on higher food prices, reversing a downward trend seen in recent months.
In terms of pace of rate cuts, the global brokerage firm expects the Reserve Bank to wait for the onset of monsoon to see the trend in actual inflation, and hence expects the RBI to keep rates unchanged in the next policy meeting on June 7.
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