Saturday, 29 August 2015

RBI May Keep Repo Rate Unchanged In Sept : 29 Aug 2015

Rajan will be closely looking at the first quarter GDP data and IIP numbers Mumbai : State Bank of India chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya said RBI is likely to keep repo rate unchanged in the September monetary policy review due to the uncertainty in the markets and a volatile rupee. "Overall, there is a case for a cut but given the fragility right now in the market and the volatility of the rupee, they may hold it as well," Bhattacharya told reporters. She said the central bank will be closely looking at the coming first quarter GDP data, to be released on August 31, and the Index of Industrial Production numbers. Since January 2015, Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has cut repo rate by 75 basis points. Bhattacharya said one needs to look at the monsoon situation as it is yet to get over. "The (monsoon) situation is not as bad but it is not a very comfortable situation either. We just have to watch.," she said. In the recently released annual report, RBI raised concerns over lower-than-expected monsoon and said it could have an impact on growth and inflation outlook. Talking about the economy, Bhattacharya said the country is now moving off the bottom. "We had come down very sharply on account of very many reasons. And, I think slowly we are working through those road blocks. We are de-blocking many-may of things that were stopping our road and I think it will slowly pick-up," she said. Bhattacharya, however, also said there was no magic wand and it was better that improvement in macroeconomic parameters happen slowly and steadily. However, Deutsche Bank said it expects RBI to slash key rates by 0.25 per cent in the September 29 review. Attributing the recent market turmoil to troubles emanating from China, it said spillover risks from continued volatility in global financial markets or potential disorderly exchange rate movement may delay the RBI's rate cut. Rajan has repeatedly been saying that its actions will be data determined, specifically the inflation trajectory staying along a glide path, the monsoon rainfall and US Fed's moves amid expectations of a tightening. RBI, which has recently received an inflation targeting mandate, is aiming to get inflation under 6 per cent by January 2016 and cool it down further to 4 per cent in the year after.

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