Soybean April contract is likely to trade
sideways for both short term and intra day. Short term support is seen at 3300
and resistance at 3510. Soybean futures may trade on a mixed to positive note
due to good buying support at lower prices and sluggish demand for oil meal
might weigh on prices. Soybean April contract gained 0.98% to 3407 levels at
NCDEX on Friday(11.50am).
Oil
meal exports may drop 40 per cent in 2014/15 due to lower demand for soymeal as
key buyers like Iran and Japan switch to cheaper supplies from South America.
In January 2015, Soymeal exports fell by more than 71 per cent to 104,426
tonnes against 364,443 tonnes in the same month a year ago. The domestic
spot markets continued to be influenced by sluggish buying activity from retail
traders. At Indore market, soybean plant rates lost between Rs. 20 - Rs. 30 to
quote in the range of Rs. 3,300-Rs. 3,360/100kg. The fundamentals of the international
market reflect that U.S. soybean supplies were tighter than expected due to
rising demand on both the domestic and export fronts, according to government
data released on Tuesday. As per International Grain Council(IGC), soybean
output may rise by 40 lakh tons this year. It has estimated 31.20 crore tons
output globally in 2014-15. Previously, the IGC had estimated 30.8 crore tons
in its projection released in November. IGC has estimated 117 lakh tons of
soybeans in India for 2014-15, while it was 120 lakh tons last year. However,
some organizations differ the estimate. As per the Soybean Processors
Association of India report released in November, soybean output may be around
105 lakh tons, while Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade (COIT) has
predicted 91 lakh tons. The COIT has estimated 13 lakh tons less output in
Maharashtra as compared to last year. As per COIT, soybean output was 38 lakh
tons in the state last year, while it has been recorded only 25 lakh tons as of
now.