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Thursday 23 October 2014

Statistical Analysis of Spot Nifty

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards. 

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 8,186.38.

The projected lower bound is: 7,815.39.

The projected closing price is: 8,000.89.  

Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

  • Technical Outlook 
  • Short Term:              Neutral
  • Intermediate Term:   Bearish
  • Long Term:                Bullish

  • Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
  • Close:                   7,874.24       7,932.90       7,119.40
  • Volatility:                    18             15             15
  • Volume:              162,869,504    132,638,368    154,463,312

  • Volume Today:                      15,110,446,080 shares.

  • smoothed r-squared                0.572

  • Standard Error                        76.050

  • Linear Regression Slope           -12.004

  • Historical Volatility                   0.109

                           Statistical            Change from 
                           Volatility             Previous period

  • 10-period         17.9063            -0.97
  • 21-period         17.7172             0.22
  • 39-period         15.1192             0.21
  • 90-period        15.3026            -0.17

Bollinger Bands are 6.10% narrower than normal.   

Darvas Box System

Box High: 8,180.2002
Box Low: 7,925.1499

The current trend is: Bullish

This system is based on the formulas and ideas presented by Daryl Guppy in the May and June 2005 issues of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine.  His formulas were used for the base signal.  To that was added  volume and volatility based confirmation signals.

The system test only trades on signals with both volume and volatility confirmations.  All signals are listed in this expert so the user can chose whether to take trade a signal or not.

All stops are exits are very conservative.  It is possible the stop was triggered by a small pull back and the trade could generate more profit.  If you chose to stay in the trade,  make sure you have a realistic stop set to protect yourself.


Parag Patil is a technical analyst and trading system designer with stock excel programmer. I hope the articles and live chart of nse future and mcx on this Website will be as helpful and profitable to you . I try to update and post new articles tips everyday. My motto is to encourage the traders, so that they should able to understand the technique views behind the moment of stocks. I have deeply analyzed with many technical indicator with parameter and added to my amibroker afl. And even taken backtest report which is never being implemented. Any of the analyst expect me. Seeing all this you may understand that my views is more technical than commercial. If you are profited by my views I fill happy.

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